Forecast the peak in hours, not people
Start from last year's numbers: orders, footfall, bills, deliveries or covers per day through the season. Convert them into shifts using your normal productivity, then compare with the shifts your current team can give. A Jaipur fulfilment warehouse normally ships 6,000 orders a day with 60 packers, at 100 orders per packer per 8-hour shift. For the ten days before Diwali it expects 9,000 orders a day, which needs 90 packer shifts a day. With weekly offs, the 60 packers give about 51 shifts on any day (60 x 6 / 7 = 51.4), so the gap is about 39 shifts a day.
Fill the gap from three sources
Temporary or fixed-term hires add real capacity but need hiring, documents and training time, so start four to six weeks ahead. A fixed-term worker holds full employee status, so onboard them properly rather than as casual extras. Overtime is quick but tiring and costly, since it is paid at twice the ordinary wage rate and needs each worker's consent. Redeploying office staff to simple tasks such as packing or returns helps in the last few days, if they are trained and safe.
For the warehouse, 35 fixed-term packers working six days a week add 30 shifts a day (35 x 6 / 7). That leaves 9 shifts, or 72 hours a day, for overtime, which is about one extra hour each for 72 of the 81 packers on duty, taken only from volunteers. Office staff cover the final surge on the last four days. Hiring for the base of the peak and keeping overtime for the top days costs less and tires fewer people than the reverse.
Leave rules for the peak, set fairly
A short leave restriction during the busiest weeks is reasonable if it is written into the leave policy, announced early, applied to everyone in the affected teams and balanced by leave before and after. Announce the peak dates at least two months ahead. Let people apply for festival leave by a cut-off, then allocate it in turns, so the same people are not always working Diwali or Eid. Allow genuine emergencies with the manager's approval. Keep the restriction specific, such as the three weeks before Diwali and two days after it, not the whole quarter.
Roster the peak to protect people
Peaks are where rosters break and people burn out. A warehouse that ships every Diwali order but loses its most experienced packers in December has not really succeeded. Build these protections into the peak roster from the first draft, not after complaints start.
- Cap overtime per person per week and spread it across volunteers, not just the fastest workers.
- Keep a weekly off for everyone, even if the day moves, so nobody works two weeks straight.
- Pair temporary staff with experienced colleagues on every shift.
- Plan meals, drinking water and transport for late finishes.
- After the peak, give leave priority or comp-off to those who carried the heaviest load.
Step by step
- Forecast the peak in labour hours. Use last year's daily volumes and your normal productivity to estimate the shifts needed on each day of the peak, then compare with what the team can give.
- Decide the mix of sources. Split the gap between temporary or fixed-term hires, overtime from volunteers and redeployed staff, noting the cost and the risk of each.
- Start temporary hiring early. Begin four to six weeks before the peak. ZeniaHR's self-onboarding link lets joiners fill personal and bank details and upload documents before day one, and HR approves each record.
- Announce leave rules for the peak. Publish the peak dates, the leave cut-off and how festival days off will be shared in turns, at least two months ahead.
- Build the peak roster in one go. Roster the whole peak at once, keeping weekly offs and spreading overtime across volunteers. In ZeniaHR, shifts can be assigned in bulk over up to 92 days, which covers a festival season.
- Set an overtime cap and approvals. Agree the most overtime one person may work in a week, take written consent, and approve overtime daily. ZeniaHR's overtime policy supports a monthly cap and manager then HR approval.
- Review daily during the peak. Compare planned and actual volumes and attendance each day, and adjust shifts two or three days ahead rather than on the morning itself.
- Close the peak properly. Pay temporary staff their wages within two working days of their last day, as the [wage payment rules](/labour-codes/code-on-wages/payment-of-wages-timelines/) set, and give priority leave to people who worked the heaviest days.
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How early should you plan staffing for Diwali?
Start two to three months ahead. Forecast volumes in the first month, begin temporary hiring four to six weeks before the peak, and announce leave rules at least two months ahead so staff can plan festival travel. Late planning leaves you relying on overtime, which is costly and tires the people you most need.
Can a company restrict leave during a festival peak?
A short restriction during the busiest weeks is reasonable if it is written in the leave policy, announced early, applied evenly and kept to specific dates. Allow genuine emergencies with the manager's approval, share festival days off in turns, and give priority leave after the peak to the people who worked it.
Should festival peaks be covered with overtime or temporary staff?
Use both. Overtime adds hours quickly without training, but it is paid at twice the ordinary wage rate, needs each worker's consent and tires people. Temporary or fixed-term hires add real capacity but need weeks of lead time. Hiring for the base of the peak and using overtime only for the top days tends to cost less.
How do you forecast staff needed for a sale peak?
Take last year's daily volumes for the same period, adjust for growth, and divide by normal output per person per shift. For 9,000 orders a day at 100 orders per packer shift, you need 90 packer shifts a day. Compare that with the shifts your team can give after weekly offs to find the gap.